Introducing the Framework Model for the Evaluation of Deterrent Value of States


  • Zia Ul Haque Shamsi Assistant Professor at the Department of Strategic Studies, National Defense University, Islamabad, Pakistan



Deterrence, Nuclear Weapons, National Security, Economic Security, Cyber Security, Pakistan


The term ‘deterrence’ is closely intertwined with the national security of sovereign states and is frequently misunderstood within strategic literature. Some argue that acquiring specific arms and equipment is essential for achieving deterrence, while others contend that security hinges on the acquisition of Deterrent Value (DV) through various means, including but not limited to arms and equipment. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of deterrence―its definitions, conceptual framework, political objectives, and its role as a military strategy―is crucial before forming a reasoned judgment about its effectiveness as a safeguard for national security. This paper aims to construct a framework model delineating a state’s deterrent capability as the paramount guarantor of its national security. Employing both inductive and deductive reasoning, this model will objectively analyze the efficacy, or lack thereof, of the tools upon which the security architecture of any state is founded. By facilitating case studies of diverse states, the framework model will aid researchers in predicting future events and extracting relevant lessons from past occurrences.


Almäng, J. (2019). War, vagueness and hybrid war. Defence Studies, 19(2), 189-204. DOI:

Barnett, J. (2010). Environmental security. In The Routledge Handbook of New Security Studies (pp. 123-131). Routledge.

Bassil, Y. (2012). The 2003 Iraq war: operations, causes, and consequences. LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing. DOI:

Brodie, B. (1945). The atomic bomb and American security. In US Nuclear Strategy: A Reader (pp. 64-94). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK. DOI:

Brodie, B., & Dunn, F. S. (1946). The absolute weapon: Atomic power and world order. New York: Harcourt Brace.

Cambridge Dictionary. (n.d.). Security. Cambridge Dictionary.

Cherkaoui, T. (2018). Qatar’s public diplomacy, international broadcasting and the Gulf Crisis. Rising Powers Quarterly, 3(3), 127-149.

Clarke, S. (2023). Turkey election results: presidential vote round two. The Guardian.

Collins Dictionary. (n.d.a). Security definition and meaning. Collins English Dictionary.

Collins Dictionary. (n.d.b). deterrence definition and meaning. Collins English Dictionary.

Da Cruz, M. (2020). Why do states acquire nuclear weapons? A theoretical framework in assessing nuclear proliferation in Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Political Analysis, 21(1), 2.

Davies, N. J. (2010). Blood on our hands: the American invasion and destruction of Iraq. Nimble Books LLC.

Dunne, M. (2011). Perfect Failure: the USA, Cuba and the Bay of Pigs, 1961. The Political Quarterly, 82(3), 448-458. DOI:

Five Essential Elements of a Holistic Approach to National Security. (n.d.). National Security Education Day.

Guan, A. C. (2000). The South China Sea Dispute Revisited. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 54(2), 201-215. DOI:

Hakeem, A. (2022). Resolving Siachen: Perspectives from Pakistan. Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.

Hali, S. M. (2022). Quaid-i-Azam & Pakistan Air Force. Pakistan Observer.

Hart, B. L. (2008). Strategy: the indirect approach. In Strategic Studies (pp. 92-95). Routledge. DOI:

Hoagland, J. (2024). Transcript Shows Muted U.S. Response to Threat by Saddam in Late July. Washington Post.

Holmes, K. (2014). What is National Security? The Heritage Foundation.

Howell, E. (2023). North Korea and the Global Nuclear Order: When Bad Behaviour Pays. Oxford University Press. DOI:

Hunter, E., & Pernik, P. (2015). The challenges of hybrid warfare. Tallinn: International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS).

Hussain, S. (2021). Kashmir in the Aftermath of Partition. Cambridge University Press. DOI:

Idachaba, E.U. (2019). Military-Focused Security. In: Romaniuk, S., Thapa, M., Marton, P. (eds) The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Global Security Studies. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. DOI:

Karim, M. (2017). World Powers Rivalry in Afghanistan and Its Effects on Pakistan. Dialogue (Pakistan), 12(3).

Kitano, M. (2016). Opaque nuclear proliferation revisited: determinants, dynamism, and policy implications. The Non-proliferation Review, 23(3-4), 459-479. DOI:

Lavoy, P. R. (Ed.). (2009). Asymmetric warfare in South Asia: the causes and consequences of the Kargil Conflict. Cambridge University Press. DOI:

McDevitt, M. (2004). The Security Situation across the Taiwan Strait: challenges and opportunities. Journal of Contemporary China, 13(40), 411-425. DOI:

Merriam-Webster. (n.d.a). Security. Merriam-Webster dictionary.

Merriam-Webster. (n.d.b). deterrence. Merriam-Webster dictionary.

National Cyber Security Strategy. (2013). Departamento de Seguridad Nacional.

Nemeth, W. J. (2002). Future war and Chechnya: a case for hybrid warfare [Doctoral dissertation, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School]. Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive.

Neu, C. R., & Wolf, C. (1994). The Dimensions of National Security. Rand.

Nonneman, G. (2022). European Policies Towards the Gulf: Patterns, Dynamics, Evolution, and the Case of the Qatar Blockade. In Reflecting on the GCC Crisis (pp. 64-90). Routledge. DOI:

Pakistan warns India against attacking. (2019). BBC News.

Qimao, C. (1996). The Taiwan Strait crisis: its crux and solutions. Asian Survey, 36(11), 1055-1066. DOI:

Reilly, B. (2007). Political Engineering in the Asia-Pacific. Journal of Democracy, 18(1), 58-72. DOI:

Romm, J. J. (1993). Defining national security: the nonmilitary aspects (pp.122). Council on Foreign Relations.

Rutherford, A. P. (2019). The interplay between energy security and law and policy on green energy development: a socio-legal analysis [Doctoral dissertation]. The University of Liverpool (United Kingdom).

Shamsi, Z. U. H. (2022, March 21). Cyber Warfare: A Weapon of Mass Disruption. Daily Times.

Shamsi, Z. U. H. (2023). Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War. Peter Lang Publishing, Incorporated. DOI:

Siachen: An Environmental Disaster in the Making. (2023). Islamabad Policy Research Institute.

Siyech, M. S. (2019). The Pulwama Attack. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, 11(4), 6-10.

The Britannica Dictionary. (n.d.) Deterrence Definition & Meaning. Britannica.

Tzu, S. (1963). The art of war (Vol. 84). Oxford: Oxford University Press.

United Nations. (1994). Human Development Report 1994. UNDP.

US warned Taliban after 9/11 attacks. (2011). The Economic Times.

Von Clausewitz, C. (2007). On war. Oxford University Press, USA.

Yusuf, M. W. (2019). The Pulwama Crisis. Arms Control Today, 49(4), 6-11.

Zain, O. F. (2006). Siachen Glacier Conflict: Discordant in Pakistan-India Reconciliation. Pakistan Horizon, 59(2), 73-82.




How to Cite

Zia Ul Haque Shamsi. (2024). Introducing the Framework Model for the Evaluation of Deterrent Value of States. NUST Journal of International Peace & Stability, 7(2), 1–15.





Most read articles by the same author(s)

Obs.: This plugin requires at least one statistics/report plugin to be enabled. If your statistics plugins provide more than one metric then please also select a main metric on the admin's site settings page and/or on the journal manager's settings pages.