Afghan Peace Deal 2020: Possible Scenarios and Outcomes

Abstract

After much deliberations and delays, the US-Taliban peace deal was finally inked on February 29th, 2020 (Asia, 2020). The long-awaited peace deal though officially considered as the end of the longest war in US history but does not seem likely to last long. The peace deal focuses on much-debated vital areas such as withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in phases (in 14 months); Taliban not to allow any Al-Qaeda presence or not to provide safe havens to Islamist terrorist groups in Afghanistan; talks between Taliban and Afghan government to begin soon; and, lifting of economic sanctions on the Taliban (US State Department, 2020).

Scholars and researchers on the subject matter issues such as counter- terrorism, Afghanistan conflict, and peace negotiations are divided on the eventual outcome of this deal. Nonetheless, there are high hopes considering the success of this deal. The country has been facing the menace of terrorism and consecutive political violence since 1979, making it one of the oldest ongoing conflicts. Probably, the Afghans have suffered more than any other nation during civil wars, coups/revolutions, foreign invasions, Islamist extremist movements and insurgencies.

Talking about long-awaited peace in Afghanistan sounds like honey to ears, but the question is how to achieve sustainable peace in Afghanistan, which has never been the case at least in the last 40 years. Having a bird‟s eye view of previous peace deal starting from Geneva Peace talks in 1989, to Peshawar Agreement signed with the aegis of the Pakistani government in 1992, and the subsequent Mecca Accord signed after the mediation of Saudi government; none had yielded the desired results. The survival of this peace deal remains a subject of much consideration. This essay endeavours to analyze possible scenarios in which the peace deal could work or could not work. One could always hope for the best interest of peace but making impractical hopes far from ground realities is never a sound examination of the situation.