Al-Qaeda Amidst the Second Afghan Taliban Regime

Abstract

The resurgence of the Afghan Taliban in 2021 and the subsequent establishment of their second regime have raised significant security concerns for the region. Despite initial predictions of instability, the Taliban's control over Afghanistan appears robust, leveraging resources from the former Afghan National and Defense Security Forces. A key concern arises from the longstanding alliance between the Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Unlike the Islamic State-Khorasan, Al-Qaeda has strategically supported the Taliban, fostering an environment conducive to its resurgence. This is evident through its relocation to Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover, reinforced by the active involvement of its regional franchise, Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), in insurgency alongside the Taliban. The US withdrawal and the unfulfilled commitments of the Doha Peace Accord have allowed Al-Qaeda to regroup, further indicated by the return of high-profile leaders and the leadership crisis post-Ayman al-Zawahiri's death. The symbiotic relationship between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda persists, posing ongoing security challenges and suggesting that the resumption of terrorist activities is a looming threat in the region.